Hydrology and Hydroclimatology Principles and Applications

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Contents
Preface.............................................................................................................................................xix
Acknowledgments...........................................................................................................................xxi
Authors......................................................................................................................................... xxiii
Chapter 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................1
1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................1
1.2 Systems Approach .............................................................................................1
1.3 Hydrologic Cycle ...............................................................................................2
1.3.1 Watersheds and Aquifers......................................................................2
1.3.2 Rivers and Reservoirs...........................................................................3
1.4 Hydrologic Variability.......................................................................................3
1.5 Disposition of Energy and Matter .....................................................................4
1.6 Representations and Statistical and Simulation Models....................................4
1.7 Extreme Values, Vulnerability, Risk, and Uncertainty .....................................5
1.8 Water Availability..............................................................................................5
1.9 Water Sustainability ..........................................................................................6
1.10 Tools and Techniques ........................................................................................8
1.11 People’s Perception—Public Awareness...........................................................9
1.12 Integrated Water Cycle Management .............................................................. 10
1.13 Economics of Water ........................................................................................ 10
1.14 Water Supply vs. Water Demand..................................................................... 11
1.15 Clean Water Act .............................................................................................. 12
1.15.1 The Basis of State Water Laws in the United States.......................... 13

1.16 Overall Organization of this Book .................................................................. 14
References .................................................................................................................. 15



Chapter 2 Hydroclimatic Systems............................................................................................... 17
2.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 17
2.2 General Systems’ Characteristics.................................................................... 17
2.2.1 System Properties............................................................................... 19
2.3 Systems Modeling ...........................................................................................22
2.3.1 Model Resolution ...............................................................................22
2.4 Earth System ...................................................................................................23
2.5 Atmosphere......................................................................................................25
2.5.1 General Circulation of the Atmosphere .............................................27
2.6 Lithosphere ......................................................................................................29
2.6.1 Crustal System....................................................................................30
2.7 Biosphere .........................................................................................................30
2.8 The Hydrosphere .............................................................................................30
2.8.1 Hydrologic Systems............................................................................ 31
2.8.2 Hydrologic System and Modeling Approaches.................................. 31
2.8.3 Hydrologic Variables and Parameters................................................ 32

2.9 Hydrologic Cycle ............................................................................................. 33
2.9.1 The Movement of Water in the Earth–Atmosphere System ..............37
2.9.2 Evaporation and Transpiration ...........................................................37
2.9.3 Condensation......................................................................................39
2.9.4 Precipitation .......................................................................................40
2.9.5 The Surface Water Balance................................................................40
2.9.6 The Atmospheric Water Balance ....................................................... 42
2.9.7 Hydroclimatology............................................................................... 43
2.10 The Catchment Basin System.......................................................................... 43
2.10.1 Lake Catchment Systems...................................................................46
2.10.2 The Fluvial System.............................................................................46
2.10.3 Energy and Mass Transfer in Channel Systems.................................48
2.11 Groundwater System ....................................................................................... 51
2.11.1 Confined and Unconfined Aquifers.................................................... 51
2.11.2 Stream–Aquifer Interaction................................................................ 53
2.12 Concluding Remarks....................................................................................... 53
References .................................................................................................................. 55


Chapter 3 Hydroclimatic Processes............................................................................................ 57
3.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 57
3.2 Atmosphere Characteristics............................................................................. 57
3.3 Physical Behavior of the Atmosphere .............................................................58
3.3.1 Ideal Gas Law..................................................................................... 58
3.3.1.1 Common Form....................................................................59
3.3.1.2 Molar Form.........................................................................60
3.3.1.3 Isothermal and Adiabatic Expansion.................................. 61
3.3.2 Atmospheric Pressure......................................................................... 61
3.3.3 Atmospheric Temperature.................................................................. 61
3.3.3.1 Global Energy Balance.......................................................64
3.4 Heat and Temperature Relationship ................................................................66
3.4.1 Latent Heat .........................................................................................66
3.4.2 Lapse Rate.......................................................................................... 67
3.4.2.1 Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rate ..................................................68
3.4.2.2 Saturated Adiabatic Lapse Rate..........................................69
3.4.3 Atmospheric Stability.........................................................................70
3.4.3.1 Temperature Inversions.......................................................72
3.5 Measures of Water Vapor in the Atmosphere..................................................73
3.5.1 Density of Moist Air........................................................................... 76
3.6 Clouds and Precipitation Formation................................................................77
3.6.1 Cloud Formation................................................................................. 78

3.6.2 Hurricane Formation..........................................................................79
3.7 Climate Variability..........................................................................................79
3.7.1 El Niño, La Niña, and Southern Oscillation ......................................80
3.7.2 Sea Level Pressure..............................................................................82
3.7.3 Sea Surface Temperature ...................................................................82
3.7.4 Southern Oscillation Index.................................................................82
3.7.5 The North Atlantic Oscillation...........................................................83
3.7.6 Monsoon.............................................................................................84
3.8 Case Studies.....................................................................................................85
3.8.1 Case Study 1.......................................................................................85
3.8.1.1 Data.....................................................................................85
3.8.1.2 Results.................................................................................86
3.8.2 Case Study 2.......................................................................................87
3.8.2.1 Study Area ..........................................................................88
3.8.2.2 Results of Large-Scale Signal Analysis..............................88

3.9 Conclusion .......................................................................................................90
References ..................................................................................................................92

Chapter 4 Hydrologic Cycle Analysis.........................................................................................93
4.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................93
4.2 Precipitation.....................................................................................................93
4.2.1 Estimation of Missing Rainfall Data .................................................95
4.2.2 Average Areal Rainfall.......................................................................96
4.2.2.1 Station Average Method .....................................................96
4.2.2.2 Thiessen Method.................................................................96
4.2.2.3 Isohyetal Method ................................................................98
4.2.3 Snowmelt Estimation..........................................................................99
4.3 Evaporation and Evapotranspiration ............................................................. 102
4.3.1 Evaporation Evaluation .................................................................... 103
4.3.1.1 Water Budget Method....................................................... 103
4.3.1.2 Mass Transfer Method...................................................... 103
4.3.1.3 Pan Evaporation................................................................ 104
4.3.2 Measurement of Evapotranspiration ................................................ 104
4.3.2.1 Blaney–Criddle Method ................................................... 104
4.3.2.2 Thornthwaite Method ....................................................... 106

4.3.2.3 Jensen–Haise Method....................................................... 107
4.4 Interception Storage and Depression Storage................................................ 109
4.5 Infiltration...................................................................................................... 110
4.5.1 Green–Ampt Model ......................................................................... 110
4.5.1.1 Ponding Time.................................................................... 113
4.5.2 Horton Method ................................................................................. 118
4.5.3 Holtan Method..................................................................................120
4.6 Calculation of Excess Rainfall–Runoff......................................................... 121
4.7 Groundwater..................................................................................................124
4.8 Reservoirs and Lakes .................................................................................... 125
4.9 Water Balance................................................................................................126
4.9.1 Thomas Model (abcd Model)........................................................... 127
4.10 Regionalizing the Hydrologic Data Using the Kriging Method.................... 129
4.10.1 Theoretical Semivariogram Models ................................................ 130
4.10.1.1 The Gaussian Semivariogram Model ............................... 130
4.10.1.2 The Exponential Semivariogram Model .......................... 131
4.10.1.3 The Spherical Semivariogram Model............................... 131
4.10.1.4 The Sine Hole Effect Semivariogram Model ................... 131
4.10.1.5 The Power Semivariogram Model.................................... 131

4.10.2 Kriging System................................................................................. 132
4.10.3 Fitting Variogram............................................................................. 134
4.10.4 Cross-Validation ............................................................................... 136
4.11 Summary ....................................................................................................... 137
References ................................................................................................................

Chapter 5 Watersheds ............................................................................................................... 143
5.1 Definition....................................................................................................... 143
5.2 Watershed Geomorphology........................................................................... 143
5.2.1 Drainage Area .................................................................................. 143
5.2.2 Basin Length .................................................................................... 143
5.2.3 Basin Slope....................................................................................... 144
5.2.4 Basin Shape ...................................................................................... 145
5.2.5 Length to the Center of Area (LC)................................................... 150
5.2.6 Equivalent Rectangular.................................................................... 150
5.2.7 Drainage Density.............................................................................. 151
5.2.7.1 Horton’s Laws................................................................... 151
5.3 Hypsometric Curve........................................................................................ 157
5.4 Characteristics of Soil ................................................................................... 162
5.4.1 Texture of Soil.................................................................................. 162
5.4.2 Soil Structure.................................................................................... 162
5.4.3 Soil Moisture .................................................................................... 163
5.5 Channel Geomorphology .............................................................................. 163

5.5.1 Length of a Channel......................................................................... 163
5.5.2 Slope of a Channel ........................................................................... 165
5.5.2.1 Method 1........................................................................... 166
5.5.2.2 Method 2........................................................................... 167
5.5.2.3 Method 3........................................................................... 167
5.5.2.4 Method 4........................................................................... 167
5.5.2.5 Method 5........................................................................... 167
5.5.2.6 Method 6........................................................................... 167
5.5.2.7 Method 7........................................................................... 168
5.5.3 Law of Stream Slopes....................................................................... 171
5.5.4 Channel Cross Section ..................................................................... 172
5.5.5 Channel Roughness.......................................................................... 172
5.6 Travel Time.................................................................................................... 175
5.6.1 Definitions of Time of Concentration .............................................. 175
5.6.2 Classifying Time Parameters........................................................... 176
5.6.3 Velocity Method ............................................................................... 178
5.6.4 Sheet Flow Travel Time ................................................................... 179
5.6.5 Empirical Formulas.......................................................................... 186
5.6.5.1 The Carter Lag Equation for Partially Sewered

Watersheds........................................................................ 186
5.6.5.2 The Eagleson Lag Model.................................................. 187
5.6.5.3 The Espey–Winslow Equation.......................................... 187
5.6.5.4 Federal Aviation Agency (FAA) Equation ....................... 187
5.6.5.5 Kerby–Hathaway Formula................................................ 187
5.6.5.6 Kirpich’s Methods ............................................................ 188
5.6.5.7 The SCS Lag Formula ...................................................... 188
5.6.5.8 The Van Sickle Equation .................................................. 188
5.7 Land Use and Cover Impacts ........................................................................ 189
5.7.1 Forest Areas ..................................................................................... 189
5.7.2 Urban Areas ..................................................................................... 191
5.7.3 Wetland Areas.................................................................................. 192
5.8 Concluding Remarks..................................................................................... 192
References ................................................................................................................ 195

Chapter 6 Surface Water Hydrology......................................................................................... 197
6.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 197
6.2 Estimation of Runoff Volume........................................................................ 198
6.2.1 SCS Method ..................................................................................... 198
6.2.2 Rational Method...............................................................................203
6.2.2.1 IDF Curves .......................................................................204
6.2.3 Coefficient and Regression Methods................................................209

6.3 Hydrograph Theory .......................................................................................209
6.4 Baseflow Estimation...................................................................................... 210
6.4.1 Constant-Discharge Baseflow........................................................... 211
6.4.2 Constant-Slope Baseflow.................................................................. 212
6.4.3 Concave Baseflow............................................................................. 213
6.4.4 Master Depletion Curve Method...................................................... 214
6.5 Unit Hydrograph............................................................................................ 215
6.5.1 Definitions........................................................................................ 215
6.5.2 Limitations of Unit Hydrograph....................................................... 216
6.5.3 Convolution ...................................................................................... 218

6.5.4 Least-Squares Analysis of Unit Hydrographs..................................224
6.6 Different Types of Unit Hydrographs............................................................225
6.6.1 SCS Unit Hydrograph.......................................................................225
6.6.2 Espey 10 min Unit Hydrograph........................................................229
6.6.3 Snyder’s Synthetic Unit Hydrograph................................................ 233
6.7 Unit Hydrograph Adjustments....................................................................... 237
6.7.1 S-Hydrograph Method...................................................................... 239
6.7.2 Gamma Function Unit Hydrograph..................................................246
6.7.3 Averaging Storm Event Unit Hydrographs.......................................247
6.7.4 Dimensionless Unit Hydrographs.....................................................248

6.8 Instantaneous Unit Hydrographs...................................................................248
6.8.1 Nash Model ...................................................................................... 251
6.8.2 Laplace Transformation Model........................................................ 257
6.8.2.1 Basin as a Linear Reservoir.............................................. 257
6.8.2.2 Basin as a Channel............................................................ 261
6.8.3 Time–Area Unit Hydrographs..........................................................262
6.9 Routing Methods...........................................................................................269
6.9.1 Hydrologic Methods of River Routing .............................................269

6.9.1.1 Muskingum Method ......................................................... 270
6.9.1.2 Determination of Storage Constants................................. 273
6.9.1.3 Muskingum–Cunge Method............................................. 274
6.10 Hydrologic Reservoir Routing....................................................................... 278
6.10.1 Storage Indication Method ............................................................... 278
6.10.2 Detention Basin Routing ..................................................................280
6.11 Estuaries........................................................................................................284
6.12 Water Quality Issues in Surface Water..........................................................285
6.12.1 Physical Parameters..........................................................................286
6.12.1.1 Temperature ......................................................................286
6.12.1.2 Salinity..............................................................................286
6.12.1.3 Suspended Material Concentration and Turbidity............286

6.12.1.4 Current Speed and Direction............................................287
6.12.1.5 Meteorological Parameters (Weather)..............................287
6.12.2 Chemical Parameters .......................................................................287
6.12.2.1 Oxygen..............................................................................287
6.12.2.2 Nutrients ...........................................................................287
6.12.2.3 pH and Alkalinity.............................................................288
6.12.2.4 Chlorophyll a ....................................................................288

6.12.2.5 Toxic Contaminants..........................................................288
6.12.3 Biological Parameters.......................................................................288
6.12.3.1 Pathogens (Indicator Bacteria)..........................................288
6.12.4 Oxygen Sag Model ...........................................................................289
Appendix ..................................................................................................................296
References ................................................................................................................299

Chapter 7 Groundwater Hydrology........................................................................................... 301
7.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 301
7.2 Groundwater Systems....................................................................................302
7.3 Groundwater Availability ..............................................................................303
7.4 Groundwater Development............................................................................304

7.5 Types of Aquifers ..........................................................................................305
7.5.1 Unconfined Aquifer..........................................................................305
7.5.2 Confined Aquifers............................................................................306
7.5.3 Aquitard (Leaky) Aquifer ................................................................306
7.6 Aquifer Characteristics..................................................................................306
7.6.1 Porosity and Void Ratio....................................................................306
7.6.2 Specific Yield in Unconfined Aquifers ............................................309
7.6.3 Specific Retention.............................................................................309
7.6.4 Storage Coefficient and Specific Storage ......................................... 311

7.6.5 Safe Yield of Aquifers...................................................................... 314
7.7 Groundwater Balance .................................................................................... 315
7.7.1 Water Balance in Confined Aquifers ............................................... 316
7.7.2 Water Balance in Unconfined Aquifers............................................ 316
7.7.3 Water Balance in Unsaturated Zone ................................................ 317
7.8 Groundwater Movement................................................................................ 317
7.8.1 Darcy’s Law...................................................................................... 317
7.8.2 Hydraulic Head................................................................................. 319
7.8.3 Hydraulic Conductivity ....................................................................320
7.8.3.1 Hydraulic Conductivity in Saturated Media.....................320
7.9 Homogeneous and Isotropic Systems............................................................ 322
7.9.1 Hydraulic Conductivity in Multilayer Structures............................. 323

7.10 Transmissivity ...............................................................................................324
7.11 Dupuit–Forchheimer Theory of Free-Surface Flow ..................................... 325
7.12 Flownets ........................................................................................................ 327
7.12.1 Isotropic and Homogeneous Media.................................................. 327
7.12.2 Heterogeneous Media....................................................................... 331
7.12.3 Anisotropic Media............................................................................ 332
7.13 Wells.............................................................................................................. 333
7.13.1 Steady Flow into a Well ................................................................... 335
7.13.1.1 Confined Flow .................................................................. 335
7.13.1.2 Unconfined Flow .............................................................. 336
7.13.2 Unsteady State in a Confined Aquifer.............................................. 337
7.13.2.1 Aquifer Test Application................................................... 341

7.13.2.2 Theis Method of Solution ................................................. 341
7.13.2.3 Cooper–Jacob Method-Modified Theis............................ 343
7.13.3 Unsteady State for Unconfined Aquifer........................................... 345
7.14 Multiple-Well Systems...................................................................................348
7.15 Effective Conditions on Time-Drawdown Data ............................................349
7.15.1 Recharge Boundary..........................................................................349
7.15.2 Impermeable Boundary.................................................................... 351
7.15.3 Partially Penetrating Wells............................................................... 352
7.16 Interaction between Surface and Groundwater............................................. 354
7.16.1 Infiltration......................................................................................... 354
7.16.2 Concepts of Interaction between Surface Water and Groundwater ....355
7.16.3 Bank Storage and Baseflow Recession............................................. 356

7.16.4 Groundwater and Lakes ................................................................... 356
7.17 Concluding Remarks..................................................................................... 357
References ................................................................................................................360

Chapter 8 Time Series Analysis................................................................................................ 363
8.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 363
8.2 Stochastic Processes......................................................................................364
8.3 Time Series....................................................................................................365
8.4 Hydrological Time Series..............................................................................366
8.4.1 Rainfall............................................................................................. 367
8.4.2 Runoff...............................................................................................368

8.5 Hydrologic Time Series Modeling: Basic Steps............................................369
8.6 Data Preparation............................................................................................ 370
8.6.1 Removing Data Trend ...................................................................... 370
8.6.2 Jump ................................................................................................. 373
8.6.3 Periodicity (Seasonality) .................................................................. 373
8.6.4 Time Series Memory........................................................................ 374
8.6.4.1 Hurst Coefficient............................................................... 374
8.6.5 Data Normalization.......................................................................... 375
8.6.6 Time Dependency ............................................................................ 378

8.7 Time Series Modeling in Hydrology.............................................................380
8.8 Methods of Parameter Estimation................................................................. 381
8.8.1 Method of Moments......................................................................... 381
8.8.2 Method of Least Squares.................................................................. 382
8.8.3 Method of Maximum Likelihood.....................................................384
8.9 Regression-Based Methods ...........................................................................386
8.9.1 ARMA(p,q) Model Identification ....................................................386
8.9.1.1 Autocorrelation Function..................................................386
8.9.1.2 Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF).........................386

8.9.2 Autoregressive (AR) Models............................................................388
8.9.3 Moving Average Process..................................................................392
8.9.4 Autoregressive Moving Average Modeling...................................... 393
8.9.4.1 Generation and Forecasting Using ARMA Models.........397
8.9.5 Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) .............................................397
8.9.5.1 Generation and Forecasting.............................................. 398
8.9.6 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Modeling ....................399
8.9.6.1 Time Series Forecasting Using ARIMA Models.............400
8.9.7 Autoregressive–Moving Average Model with Exogenous Inputs
(ARMAX) Model.............................................................................404
8.9.8 Multivariate and Disaggregation Modeling of Time Series.............404
8.10 Goodness-of-Fit Tests.................................................................................... 410
8.10.1 Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test..................................................... 411

8.10.2 Kolmogorov–Smirnov Goodness-of-Fit Test ................................... 413
8.10.3 The Portmanteau Test....................................................................... 414
8.10.4 The Cumulative Periodogram Test................................................... 416
8.11 Spectral-Analysis-Based Methods ................................................................ 416
8.11.1 Spectral Analysis Primer ................................................................. 416
8.11.2 Periodogram..................................................................................... 417
8.11.3 Frequency Interpretation .................................................................. 417
8.11.4 Spectral Density Function................................................................420
8.11.5 ANOVA Decomposition...................................................................420

8.11.6 Spectral Density and ARMA Model................................................ 422
8.11.7 GARCH Model................................................................................. 422
8.12 Concluding Remarks.....................................................................................424
Appendix .................................................................................................................. 427
References ................................................................................................................ 431

Chapter 9 Climate Change Impacts and Models...................................................................... 433
9.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 433
9.2 The Greenhouse Effect.................................................................................. 433
9.2.1 The Principle of Greenhouse Gas Effects........................................ 434
9.2.2 Atmospheric Concentration of CO2.................................................. 434

9.3 Carbon Cycle ................................................................................................. 435
9.3.1 Estimating Carbon Emission: The Kaya Identity ............................ 437
9.4 Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Cycle............................................... 439
9.5 Water Resource System Effects..................................................................... 441
9.5.1 Floods and Droughts........................................................................ 441
9.5.2 Agricultural Droughts......................................................................442
9.5.3 Water Use .........................................................................................442
9.5.4 Water Quality ...................................................................................442

9.5.5 Habitat ..............................................................................................442
9.5.6 Hydroelectric Power.........................................................................443
9.5.7 Snowpack .........................................................................................443
9.5.8 Riverflow..........................................................................................443
9.6 Climate Change Simulation...........................................................................443
9.6.1 Climate Change Scenarios...............................................................444

9.6.1.1 Spatial Variability.............................................................444
9.6.2 Downscaling.....................................................................................446
9.6.2.1 Statistical Downscaling Model.........................................449
9.6.2.2 Stochastic Weather Generator Model (LARS-WG) ......... 452
9.7 Case Studies................................................................................................... 455
9.7.1 Case Study 1: Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on
Hydroclimatic Variables in the Aharchai River Basin..................... 455
9.7.1.1 Study Area ........................................................................ 455
9.7.1.2 Methodology and Results................................................. 455
9.7.2 Case Study 2: Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on Urban

Floods............................................................................................... 457
9.7.2.1 Study Area ........................................................................ 457
9.7.2.2 Methodology..................................................................... 458
9.7.2.3 Results............................................................................... 461
9.7.3 Case Study 3: Impacts on Future Droughts......................................463
9.7.4 Case Study 4: Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts on
Irrigation Water Demand .................................................................463

References ................................................................................................................469

Chapter 10 Probability, Risk, and Uncertainty in Hydrologic Analysis..................................... 471
10.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 471
10.2 Probability Treatment of Hydrologic Data .................................................... 471
10.2.1 Discrete and Continuous Random Variables.................................... 473
10.2.2 Moments of Distribution .................................................................. 473

10.3 Common Probabilistic Models...................................................................... 478
10.3.1 The Binomial Distribution ............................................................... 478
10.3.2 Normal Distribution ......................................................................... 479
10.3.3 Lognormal Distribution....................................................................480
10.3.4 The Exponential Distribution........................................................... 481
10.3.5 The Gamma (Pearson Type 3) Distribution ..................................... 481
10.3.6 The Log Pearson Type 3 Distribution ..............................................482
10.4 Return Period or Recurrence Interval ...........................................................482
10.5 Reliability ......................................................................................................483
10.5.1 Reliability Analysis Load-Resistance Concept................................488

10.5.2 Direct Integration Method................................................................490
10.5.3 Margin of Safety .............................................................................. 491
10.5.4 Factor of Safety ................................................................................492
10.5.5 Multivariate Reliability Analysis.....................................................492
10.5.5.1 Copula Theory..................................................................494
10.6 Risk................................................................................................................ 495
10.6.1 Risk Components .............................................................................497
10.6.2 Risk Analysis Methods and Tools....................................................499
10.6.2.1 Environmental Risk Analysis...........................................500
10.6.3 Risk Management.............................................................................502

10.7 Vulnerability..................................................................................................503
10.7.1 Vulnerability Estimation ..................................................................503
10.7.1.1 Vulnerability Software .....................................................506
10.7.2 Risk Reduction through Reducing Vulnerability.............................507
10.8 Resiliency ......................................................................................................508
10.9 Uncertainty....................................................................................................509
10.9.1 Implications of Uncertainty ............................................................. 512
10.9.2 Uncertainty of Hydrological Forecasting......................................... 513
10.9.3 Measures of Uncertainty .................................................................. 513
10.9.3.1 Entropy Theory................................................................. 514
10.9.3.2 Probability Theory—Bayes’ Theorem ............................. 516

10.9.3.3 Fuzzy Set Theory.............................................................. 517
10.9.4 Analysis of Uncertainty.................................................................... 518
10.9.4.1 Mean Value First-Order Second-Moment Method........... 519
Appendix .................................................................................................................. 523
References ................................................................................................................

Chapter 11 Hydrologic Simulation.............................................................................................. 529
11.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 529

11.2 Mathematical Simulation Techniques........................................................... 529
11.2.1 Stochastic Simulation....................................................................... 530
11.2.2 Stochastic Processes......................................................................... 530
11.2.3 Markov Processes and Markov Chains............................................ 532
11.2.4 Monte Carlo Technique.................................................................... 535
11.2.5 Artificial Neural Networks............................................................... 538
11.2.5.1 Multilayer Perceptron Network (Static Network)............. 541
11.2.5.2 Recurrent Neural Network................................................ 543

11.2.5.3 Input-Delayed Neural Network.........................................544
11.2.5.4 Time Delay Neural Network............................................. 545
11.2.5.5 General Regression Neural Network................................548
11.2.5.6 Probabilistic Neural Network ........................................... 550
11.2.6 k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm......................................................... 550
11.2.7 Fuzzy Sets and Parameter Imprecision............................................ 553
11.2.8 Fuzzy Inference System ................................................................... 556
11.2.8.1 Mamdani’s Method........................................................... 557

11.2.8.2 Sugeno’s Method...............................................................560
11.2.9 Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System ........................................560
11.3 Physical Models’ Simulation ......................................................................... 567
11.3.1 Lumped Hydrological Models..........................................................568
11.3.2 IHACRES.........................................................................................568
11.3.3 Semi-Distributed Hydrological Models ........................................... 570
11.3.3.1 HEC-HMS ........................................................................ 570
11.3.3.2 StormNET ........................................................................ 577
11.3.3.3 HBV.................................................................................. 585

11.3.4 Model Structure................................................................................ 585
11.3.5 Distributed Hydrological Models..................................................... 589
11.3.5.1 Watershed Modeling System ............................................590
References ................................................................................................................597

Chapter 12 Drought Analysis and Management.........................................................................599

12.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................599
12.2 Drought as a Hazard......................................................................................599
12.3 Drought Definition.........................................................................................600
12.4 Climatic Drought...........................................................................................602
12.4.1 Point Evaluation ...............................................................................602
12.4.1.1 Fitting Statistical Distribution ..........................................602
12.4.1.2 Analysis of Moving Averages...........................................604
12.4.1.3 Point Evaluation of Drought Events in a Monthly Scale ..606

12.4.1.4 Effective Rainfall and Rainfall Difference Series............606
12.4.1.5 Onset and Termination of Drought...................................609
12.4.2 Regional Analysis of Climatic Drought........................................... 614
12.4.2.1 Weighting Method ............................................................ 614
12.4.2.2 Median of Ratios Method................................................. 615

12.4.2.3 Combined Method ............................................................ 616
12.4.3 Climatic Drought Indicators............................................................. 617
12.4.3.1 Standard Precipitation Index ............................................ 617
12.5 Hydrological Drought.................................................................................... 619
12.5.1 Reservoir Operation and Demand Allocation..................................620
12.5.2 Hydrological Drought Indices: SWSI...............................................620

12.6 Agricultural Drought..................................................................................... 621
12.6.1 Agricultural Drought Indicators....................................................... 621
12.6.1.1 Thornthwaite Water Balance Model................................. 622
12.6.1.2 Potential Evapotranspiration............................................. 622
12.6.1.3 Soil Moisture Condition ................................................... 622
12.6.1.4 Runoff Calculation............................................................ 623
12.6.1.5 Potential Climatic Values.................................................624
12.6.1.6 Coefficients of Water Balance Parameters.......................624
12.6.1.7 Climatically Appropriate for Existing Condition (Pˆ)....... 625
12.6.1.8 Moisture Anomaly Index (Z)............................................626
12.6.1.9 Climatic Character, k........................................................626
12.6.1.10 Palmer Drought Severity Index ........................................ 627

12.6.1.11Crop Moisture Index......................................................... 629
12.6.2 Sequence of Drought Impacts.......................................................... 629
12.6.3 Economic Aspects of Water Shortage..............................................630
12.7 Hybrid Drought Index ...................................................................................634
12.7.1 Evaluation of Water Availability and Drought Damage .................. 637

12.7.2 A Case Study.................................................................................... 639
12.8 Geostatistic Tools in Drought Studies........................................................... 641
12.8.1 Spatial Kriging in Drought Studies.................................................. 641
12.8.2 Spatial–Temporal Kriging................................................................642
12.9 Drought Preparedness/Management .............................................................643
12.9.1 Drought Monitoring as a Component of Drought Preparedness
Planning ...........................................................................................644
12.9.1.1 Principles of Drought Policy.............................................644

12.9.1.2 Drought Mitigation Planning............................................644
References ................................................................................................................649

Chapter 13 Flood......................................................................................................................... 651
13.1 Introduction ................................................................................................... 651
13.2 Flood Types................................................................................................... 652
13.2.1 Flash Floods..................................................................................... 652
13.2.2 Coastal Floods.................................................................................. 652
13.2.3 Urban Floods.................................................................................... 653
13.2.4 River Floods..................................................................................... 653
13.2.5 Ponding or Pluvial Flooding ............................................................654
13.2.6 Inland and Coastal Flooding............................................................654
13.2.6.1 Inland Flooding ................................................................654

13.2.6.2 Coastal Flooding............................................................... 655
13.3 Flood Analysis............................................................................................... 658
13.3.1 Flood Time Series............................................................................ 658
13.3.1.1 Peaks over Threshold Series............................................. 658

13.3.2 Flood Probability Analysis............................................................... 659
13.3.3 Testing for Quilters...........................................................................666
13.4 Flood Prediction ............................................................................................668
13.5 Flood Routing................................................................................................669
13.5.1 Simple Non-Storage Routing............................................................
13.5.2 Storage-Based Routing..................................................................... 672

13.6 Urban Floods................................................................................................. 672
13.6.1 Urban Flood Control Principles....................................................... 672
13.7 Understanding Flood Hazards....................................................................... 673
13.7.1 Climate Change and Flooding ......................................................... 673
13.7.2 Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge ...................................................... 674
13.8 Evacuation Zones........................................................................................... 674
13.9 Flood Damage ............................................................................................... 676
13.9.1 Stage–Damage Curve....................................................................... 677
13.9.2 Expected Damage............................................................................. 678
13.10 Flood Risk Management ...............................................................................680
13.10.1 Resiliency and Flood Risk Management..........................................682

13.11 Floodplain Management................................................................................682
13.11.1 Structural Measures in Flood Management.....................................683
13.11.2 The Role of Nonstructural Measures...............................................684
13.11.3 BMPs and Flood Control..................................................................684
13.11.4 Watershed Flood Early Warning System .........................................685
13.11.5 Flood Insurance................................................................................687
13.12 Case Studies...................................................................................................688
13.12.1 Case Study 1: Probabilistic Optimization Model for Floodplain
Management.....................................................................................688
13.12.2 Case Study 2: Improvement of Urban Drainage System

Performance under Climate Change Impact....................................689
13.12.3 Case Study 3: Evaluation of Floodplain Variability Considering
Climate Change Impacts..................................................................692
13.12.4 Case Study 4: Optimal Flood Management Options with
Probabilistic Optimization ...............................................................695
13.12.5 Case Study 5: Evaluation of Climate Change Impact on
Regional Flood Characteristics........................................................698
References ................................................................................................................702

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Hydrology and Hydroclimatology Principles and Applications